Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 13.035211 15.203023 17.560750 20.307954 23.413127 26.806085 30.785737
2025-01-19 9.595297 12.551896 16.079698 20.563464 26.071198 32.574331 40.788148
2025-01-26 7.980131 11.485703 15.998204 22.144664 30.198204 40.281554 53.734656
2025-02-02 6.663842 10.436896 15.625666 23.122724 33.489053 47.105539 66.090237
2025-02-09 5.678650 9.596657 15.310602 24.001631 36.584728 53.793105 78.677896
2025-02-16 4.701119 8.552211 14.493124 23.976339 38.303068 58.629418 89.005184
2025-02-23 3.808486 7.453808 13.395489 23.331369 38.959927 61.909063 97.263343
2025-03-02 3.057317 6.435986 12.249647 22.419127 39.042761 64.256814 104.217296
2025-03-09 2.590139 5.827135 11.675605 22.322747 40.323271 68.401646 113.995949
2025-03-16 2.168175 5.216441 10.998887 21.947642 41.073732 71.722604 122.657013
2025-03-23 1.995978 5.071452 11.138640 22.990491 44.232909 78.994197 137.805424
2025-03-30 1.781504 4.793474 10.982446 23.465998 46.433212 84.820697 150.942441
2025-04-06 1.542343 4.422285 10.610443 23.533519 47.985319 89.784246 163.159497
2025-04-13 1.335780 4.083964 10.258468 23.602171 49.549675 94.881260 175.919634
2025-04-20 1.285953 4.123069 10.709332 25.300662 54.237177 105.581666 198.562091
2025-04-27 1.191320 4.025840 10.846158 26.368573 57.809555 114.532321 218.674352
2025-05-04 1.099500 3.915750 10.936448 27.341789 61.260561 123.442049 239.123104
2025-05-11 0.958158 3.631091 10.576775 27.310354 62.733743 128.872269 253.772965
2025-05-18 0.800976 3.256151 9.938295 26.588522 62.755445 131.634478 263.829078
2025-05-25 0.655093 2.872009 9.209508 25.568180 62.063921 133.001563 271.415173
2025-06-01 0.568619 2.659814 8.891845 25.460263 63.251380 137.949965 285.685511
2025-06-08 0.483009 2.423006 8.466377 25.040590 63.728700 141.542594 297.600704
2025-06-15 0.459429 2.413289 8.677952 26.206941 67.733329 152.185969 323.061903